Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Your email address will not be published. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Theres significant variability among them though. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Two states have announced recounts. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Our roads need to be fixed. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Thus it would appear that bellwether. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. It was easy. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. What happened to our Democratic Party? He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. I find that hard to believe. Logistically, its a disaster. Blaine County. Its gone, Jacobs said. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. We need election reform.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. This includes personalizing content and advertising. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. About The Author. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Were a service industry-oriented area. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Theres too much corruption. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. I dont watch TV. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive She shook her head at the high price of gas. To accept cookies, click continue. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Two states have announced recounts. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). 2016 Trump. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. On . Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Its just not that great, Paul said. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. I am under that impression. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. We have become so divided. At least Biden is honest, he said. The morale of the people up there is bad. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. He cares about the American people.. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee.